Polls have closed in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, a contest viewed as a critical test for Andy Burnham in his efforts to unify Labour voters against the challenge posed by Zack Polanski of the Green Party.
Context
Labour aims to retain the seat formerly held by Keir Starmer, who secured a majority of over 11,000 votes in the 2024 general election. This byelection serves as an early measure of Burnham's political influence, nearly three months into his premiership. It is particularly significant as it reflects the party's standing among younger left-wing voters who have grown disillusioned with Labour under Starmer's leadership, particularly on issues like housing, climate change, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Developments
Polanski has launched a vigorous campaign, mobilizing thousands of activists and leaving the Green Party conference early to demonstrate his commitment to challenging Labour. The Greens are aiming to replicate their byelection success in Gorton and Denton from February, where they overturned a Labour majority. However, the political dynamics have shifted since then.
Recent polling from YouGov indicated a decline for the Greens, showing them at 21% shortly after their Greater Manchester byelection win, but the latest survey places them 16 points behind Burnham's Labour, which stands at 27%.
Burnham has made a more ambitious appeal to progressives at his first Labour conference as prime minister. The Holborn and St Pancras constituency has a significant population of students, younger voters, and renters, with nearly half of its residents aged between 18 and 34 and about 45% born overseas.
