Voting has opened in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, a contest viewed as a crucial indicator of Andy Burnham's ability to engage voters and whether Zack Polanski's Greens can continue to attract support from Labour's left.

Context

Zack Polanski, who leads the Greens in England and Wales, is contesting in this north London constituency, which was previously held by Keir Starmer. Starmer stepped down as an MP shortly after resigning as prime minister. Typically, this seat is a Labour stronghold; Starmer won it with a majority of 11,500 at the 2024 general election, despite facing strong challenges from the Greens and a left-wing independent candidate, who has since endorsed Polanski.

In 2019, Starmer secured victory by nearly 28,000 votes. Polanski has run a vigorous campaign, mobilizing numerous supporters to canvass, reminiscent of the Gorton and Denton byelection in February, where the Greens overcame a larger Labour majority.

Developments

However, the political landscape has shifted. Following the Gorton and Denton byelection, YouGov polling briefly placed the Greens above Labour, peaking at 21%. The latest poll shows Polanski's party at 11%, 16 points behind Labour. Burnham, who succeeded Starmer as prime minister in July, is perceived to have revitalized Labour, presenting a more ambitious and left-leaning policy agenda at the party's annual conference last month.