Labour's flagship changes to special education in England are at risk of unraveling as parents rush to secure support for their children before the system changes, according to new analysis from the Institute for Government (IfG) thinktank. The report suggests that the government's plans to largely replace education, health, and care plans (EHCPs) with more widespread support in mainstream schools may be overly optimistic and could take longer than the proposed 2030 timeline.

Key Findings

  • The IfG report calls for a review of the timetable for the changes, warning that without action, the government risks basing reforms and spending plans on unachievable assumptions.
  • There has been a surge in applications for EHCPs, with one school describing the current level as "unreal" compared to previous years.
  • Projections indicate that nearly one in ten pupils could have an EHCP by 2029 if the current rates of increase continue.

Amber Dellar, the author of the IfG report, highlighted a "moral hazard" created by the long rollout of changes, which encourages parents to apply for EHCPs now rather than wait for the new system. She stated:

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"There’s a ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic, as schools and parents have an incentive to secure EHCPs before they are phased out, because there’s a lot of uncertainty about what these new specialist packages of support will contain and who will be eligible for them."

Dellar noted that while the government plans to add new resources to reduce the need for families to seek EHCPs, the budgets for these resources could be strained if demand exceeds forecasts. Councils are compelled to continue issuing EHCPs until existing legislation is repealed.