Frustration with a sprawling fraud scandal has cut Peggy Flanagan’s poll lead – could ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya win a first statewide election for Republicans in 20 years?

As Democrats fight to regain control of the US Senate, hopes are rising in states – from Kansas to Texas – where they have not prevailed in decades. But in Minnesota, where Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2006, the contest for an open Senate seat is closer than expected.

Key Candidates

Should Peggy Flanagan – the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor – win the election, she will be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate. However, the closely watched Cook Political Report shifted its rating on the race this week from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat".

Flanagan has made hundreds of stops throughout Minnesota this year, first in a contested primary where she beat out a more moderate congresswoman, and now as she faces Republican challenger Michele Tafoya. Tafoya, a more pragmatic choice for Minnesota Republicans than in previous US Senate elections, has sought to cast herself as a pro-choice Republican, though she has not spelled out her stance on access to abortion.

Polling Landscape

Most polls have shown Flanagan ahead, but not with a large lead, and lagging behind those built by Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic US senator now running for governor, in polls against her challenger, Minnesota house speaker Lisa Demuth. The most recent poll by the Minnesota Star Tribune earlier this month showed Flanagan up four points.

Flanagan’s central liability comes from her current job. As the lieutenant governor in Tim Walz’s administration, she is tied into a sprawling fraud problem in the state’s social services. Without an incumbent on the ballot for governor or US Senate, some voters may take out their frustration on Flanagan. Walz decided not to seek a third term as governor, after initially saying he would, because of the fraud issue and the political response to it.

Republican Optimism

Republicans have not won a statewide race in Minnesota in 20 years. Blois Olson, an independent political analyst in Minnesota, stated, "There is a path. It’s not a wide path, but there is a path for Republicans." While Minnesota Democrats have dominated statewide races the past two decades, the state is not deeply blue: the state legislature is now split, with the house tied and Democrats controlling the senate.