A new megapoll conducted by the Messina Group (TMG) reveals that nearly half of all voters support Andy Burnham’s preference to rejoin the European Union after the next election. This finding may strengthen the position of those in Downing Street advocating for negotiations on re-entry, though some senior figures express caution due to concerns about reopening Brexit divisions.

Poll Findings

The TMG poll indicates that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU could potentially increase Labour’s vote share by up to seven points if the prime minister were to offer a fresh referendum advocating for re-entry into the bloc. Key insights from the poll include:

  • 33% of voters believe an in-out referendum is necessary.
  • 16% feel a general election mandate would suffice.
  • Another 16% think parliament could decide the matter.

These results bolster the argument for Labour to promise negotiations over re-entry in the upcoming election, aligning with the prime minister’s desire to see this happen "in his lifetime."

Burnham's Position

During his first speech as leader at the Labour conference, Burnham announced a review of options for Britain’s future relationship with Europe, suggesting that rejoining the EU should be considered. However, some Labour MPs, particularly those representing constituencies that voted for Brexit, are wary of the political risks involved in even gauging public support for this move.

Cabinet Concerns

Two-thirds of cabinet ministers, including Burnham, Louise Haigh (first secretary), John Healey (chancellor), and Ed Miliband (foreign secretary), represent seats that supported Brexit and have previously committed to respecting the 2016 vote. Despite this, public opinion appears to be shifting. Prior to Burnham’s speech, several ministers expressed caution:

  • Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, stated that while the defence and security relationship could improve, going beyond the inherited EU reset plans is "not possible nor desirable."
  • Jonathan Reynolds, the trade secretary, noted that "constitutional questions" regarding the EU relationship are creating uncertainty for businesses.
  • Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, remarked that rejoining is "not a simple, straightforward thing" and that the costs might be unacceptable.