How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election

Students in Nazareth, the largest Arab-majority city in Israel, are actively encouraging Arab Israelis to vote in the upcoming general election scheduled for next week. During rush hour, these students are distributing leaflets urging motorists to participate in what is expected to be a closely contested election. Polls suggest that Arab parties may play a crucial role in determining the balance of power.

Historically, disaffection has led to lower turnout rates among Arab Israelis, who make up about one-fifth of the population and often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. However, this election has seen a strong push to challenge the most right-wing governing coalition in Israel's history, which includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and various far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

Arkan Badran, a 23-year-old student involved in the leaflet campaign, stated,

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"I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class. I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future."

Most leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition government with Arab parties. Current opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu's coalition nor the main opposition, the Change Bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to a parliamentary majority. If these predictions hold true, anti-Netanyahu parties may need to reconsider their pledges not to collaborate with Arab parties or negotiate with Arab-majority lists.

Eisenkot has expressed reluctance to form a government with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. The political climate has been significantly altered by the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflict in Gaza, leading to increased mistrust and hostility towards the Arab minority in Israel.