Councils Warn of ‘Catastrophic’ SEND Debts Forecast to Hit £10bn by 2028

Councils across England are sounding the alarm over potentially catastrophic debts, projected to reach a record £10 billion within the next 18 months. This alarming forecast is driven by a surge in demand for special educational needs and disability (SEND) support in schools.

Despite the government recently clearing over £5 billion in historic SEND debts, local authorities anticipate that they will re-accrue this amount by April and potentially double it by 2028. The increase in applications for education, health, and care plans (EHCPs) is partly attributed to parents and schools rushing to secure support before upcoming changes to SEND provisions take effect.

The County Councils Network (CCN), which released these forecasts, emphasizes that the overspending is not due to reckless spending by councils but rather a response to rapidly growing statutory demands. Linden Kemkaran, the CCN’s SEND spokesperson, stated:

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"These deficits have not accumulated because councils have chosen to spend recklessly: they are the result of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand, which has only intensified this year, without funding keeping pace."

The financial strain on councils mirrors similar concerns within the NHS and the benefits system, as the rising prevalence of mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions continues to challenge public services. The recently published Fonagy report highlighted that the increase in these conditions is real and poses significant distress, but managing the resulting demand for support will be unsustainable without new strategies.