Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established, despite his desperate attempts to deflect criticism. As the midterm elections approach, the economic landscape remains a significant concern for many Americans.
Economic Polarization
It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced the influence of economic conditions on US elections. In September 2024, during the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. However, about six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists dropped to 33%. This shift is puzzling given the economic data: annual consumer price inflation fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, while the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Democrats, on the other hand, sharply disagreed with their Republican counterparts. From the last Harris poll of the Biden era to the first under Trump, the share of Democrats who thought the US economy was worsening jumped from 28% to 73%.
Implications for the Midterms
As the midterm elections loom, suggesting a stark Republican defeat, Trump and his supporters are hoping that this ideological lens can prevent an electoral bloodbath in November. They aim to convince the Maga base that “we’re growing at a faster rate than we’ve ever grown before.” However, polling by Harris for the Guardian indicates that the economy is perceived negatively even among their most loyal supporters.
