Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?

In a world increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI), influential voices are raising alarms about potential crises stemming from widespread job loss. Bill Gates has warned that AI could advance so rapidly that within a decade, humans may not be needed for most tasks. Similarly, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, cautioned that AI could lead to significant unemployment in as little as one to five years, particularly affecting white-collar jobs in sectors like law, technology, and finance.

As concerns about mass unemployment grow, one policy idea gaining traction is a job guarantee. This initiative would ensure that anyone seeking work is provided with a meaningful, decently paid job. Proponents argue that such a program could shield millions from the financial and psychological impacts of joblessness while mobilizing a workforce to address urgent societal challenges, including infrastructure development and climate adaptation.

The concept of a job guarantee is not new. It has historical roots, with Article 23 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirming the right to work. During the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt established the Works Progress Administration (WPA), which employed millions in public works projects. Countries like France, India, and Argentina have also implemented versions of job guarantees.