India is set to maintain its imports of Russian crude oil at near current levels following a waiver of sanctions by US President Donald Trump. This decision comes as India continues to lead as the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day this year, surpassing China, which imports approximately 1.2 million barrels per day.
Context
On September 18, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which authorized tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas. However, on October 14, he issued an executive order waiving the sanctions, restrictions, and duties just before a 30-day deadline for enforcement expired. This waiver is not exclusive to India and may also benefit China.
Developments
According to ship tracking data, India imported about 1.82 million barrels per day of Russian crude in September, compared to 1.49 million for China. Analysts from Kpler predict that October imports will remain steady at around 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day. Although these volumes are lower than the mid-year highs of 2.6 million barrels per day in June and 2.57 million barrels per day in July, the waiver is expected to encourage Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian crude.
