There is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring among recent college graduates, according to a new working paper from researchers at Munich’s CESifo. This study counters earlier findings from a Stanford University study that indicated entry-level employment in AI-impacted occupations was lagging behind other fields.

Key Findings

In their paper titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu focused on recent graduates, noting that changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring. They argue that as AI becomes capable of performing standardized tasks in entry-level jobs, firms might opt to reduce new hiring rather than lay off experienced employees.

  • 2026 Graduates: The researchers suggest that graduates in 2026 may face more risk of AI displacement compared to those from previous years.
  • Increased AI Adoption: A recent Census survey indicates a sharp rise in firms replacing employee tasks with AI, alongside increases in AI spending and usage of tools like ChatGPT Enterprise.

Concerns from Industry Leaders

Some industry leaders have expressed concerns about the impact of AI on job prospects for new graduates. Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist, stated that AI was not advanced enough to replace jobs until late 2025. Similarly, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that the rapid changes in AI could lead to high unemployment rates among this year’s college graduates, even without a recession.