With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, key voting groups including independents, rural voters, and even some Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump’s economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian.
Economic Concerns
The majority of those surveyed were pessimistic about the economy, with three-quarters of Americans expressing concern about a recession. Notably, 61% of respondents mistakenly believe that the US is already in a recession. By its typical definition, the US is not currently experiencing a recession.
The poll reveals growing weariness across the political spectrum regarding high prices. Republicans, who are fighting to maintain control of Congress, are losing support among independent voters, who are expected to be the deciding factor in key swing races.
Shift in Independent Voter Sentiment
Nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents reported that the economy is worse, a significant increase from 48% in September 2024 during the heat of the presidential election. Even within Republican ranks, optimism has diminished. In February 2025, shortly after Trump’s inauguration, 39% of Republicans believed the economy was improving. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism rose to 49%. However, in the latest poll, only 28% of Republicans feel the economy is getting better.
Key Issues for Voters
Voters indicate that high prices at gas stations and grocery stores will be crucial factors in their voting decisions this November. Two-thirds of those polled identified gas prices and grocery prices as their most important issues, followed by living expenses, healthcare costs, and foreign affairs.
