The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up jet fuel costs, leading Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair, to predict a significant increase in European air fares next year. O’Leary stated that many airlines are not hedged against these rising costs, which could result in bankruptcies and takeovers within the industry.

Predicted Fare Increases

O’Leary forecasted that air fares in Europe could rise by as much as 20% in 2027. He remarked:

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"You’re going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see the biggest increase in air fares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months."

This prediction comes as jet fuel prices have surged in recent months, largely due to the ongoing war in Iran, which has disrupted fuel supplies. Jet fuel constitutes a significant portion of airline operating costs.

Industry Context

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) previously projected that jet fuel prices would be 70% higher in 2026, estimating an average price of $152 (£114) per barrel, compared to $90 in 2025. This increase is expected to severely impact airline profits.