From a difficult economic landscape to decisions on oil and gas drilling, welfare spending, and the Chagos Islands, Andy Burnham faces significant challenges ahead of the Labour Party conference.

Context

Burnham is riding high after a successful first meeting with Donald Trump, and his party faithful are excited by their uplift in the polls. He plans to bring a message of hope and optimism to the autumn gathering in Liverpool, where he will deliver his first speech as leader on Tuesday. However, the real tests will begin in October, with a challenging economic landscape and domestic issues to navigate.

Economic Challenges

The most pressing event for Burnham is set for 28 October, as the global economic picture worsens due to the Iran war, which is pushing up energy prices and contributing to wider inflation. John Healey, Burnham’s chancellor, has limited room for maneuver, with rising government debt interest payments and shrinking headroom. Key decisions on spending are likely to be postponed until a larger fiscal event in the spring, hoping for an improvement in the economic situation.

  • Key Date: 25 November - The energy regulator will announce the next price cap for January, amid warnings of significant price increases due to surging gas costs.
  • The government must also decide whether to extend the freeze on fuel duty, which is set to end this year.

Some Labour MPs are advocating for substantial wealth taxes to address public finance gaps, while Healey is constrained by the manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT.

International Relations

Burnham has an opportunity to gain favor among pro-EU voters if he can make progress on closer ties with Europe. The UK is working to dismantle trade barriers caused by Brexit, although there are still significant sticking points, including disputes over the EU's procurement policies.