Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is preparing for a potentially negative report from the standards commissioner regarding his failure to declare a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. Party insiders anticipate an unfavorable initial verdict and are readying to appeal against any adverse findings.

Anticipated Verdict and Appeals Process

The party is on edge as it awaits the report, with multiple insiders indicating they expect the initial ruling to be against Farage. If he chooses to contest a negative verdict, the appeals process could extend for months. An MP under investigation has the right to present additional evidence to the standards committee and appeal through the independent expert panel.

Should the appeals process conclude with a penalty exceeding 10 days of suspension from the House of Commons, Farage could face a second byelection in his Clacton constituency. This would necessitate a recall petition, requiring signatures from 10% of voters within six weeks.

Ongoing Investigations and Party Changes

Farage was interviewed by the standards commissioner, Daniel Greenberg, last month, and the party expects to be notified of the verdict imminently. In the meantime, Reform UK has been restructuring its headquarters operations, having been destabilized by undercover investigations from both Channel 4 and ITV in recent weeks, alongside a decline in the polls.

The Channel 4 investigation, conducted with the group Verbatim, has prompted a police inquiry into alleged attempts to orchestrate illegal overseas donations. This has resulted in the suspension of James Orr, head of policy, and Dan Jukes, Farage’s communications chief. Both deny any wrongdoing, and an internal party report has cleared them, but the police investigation remains ongoing.